What happened last weekend and the rise of the extreme right is nothing but a surprise. We’ve seen their gains election after election. The question was never if but when. And when is now because E. Macron behaved like a petulant child listening to no one but the close circle of his unelected advisors. He had a relative majority in the parliament but it was not perfect so he decided to break his toy: “If I can’t have everything I’d rather have nothing”. Wish granted!
He had no political experience when he was elected in 2017 and still doesn’t grasp political moods better now but he think he knows. He’s bad at making allies, but vey good at being hated with his supposed arrogance and his off colour one-liniers. As for the far right, their rise is the result of decades by moderate parties, left and right, of sweeping under the carpet unpleasant issues they didn’t want to address: the perceived bad controlled immigration, the stealthy progress of political radical Islam, the creation of ethnic ghettos in the suburbs of cities big ans small, what is perceived as leniency by judges in the treatment of criminals, petty or more serious ones, undermining the job of the police, the change of character of people surroundings, with more ethnic population, wearing ethnic or religious outfits, ethnic stores, people not speaking French in the streets or the subway. Taking into account this discontents was deemed to be racist or encourage racism. The opposite happened. Being silent about the fears of people thinking their country was changing too fast even if they had not seen a black or Arab person in years where they live in the countryside (but they’d seen the riots on TV!) encouraged racism. The only party that spoke openly about these issues was the far right with easy answers to complex questions which frankly is what most people want.
Macron’s administration has had its success with the economy. France is the favourite European country where foreign firms want to invest, unemployment is at an historical low, the Covid crisis had a very low impact on the economy thanks to tons of money spent to subsidise small to medium firms and maintain employment. But what do the average French citizens know about the economy? They care about the price of what is in their shopping cart at the supermarket, how much their holidays will cost, and the evolution of their pay-check. That’s about it. Contrary to what James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist said: “It’s the economy stupid!” you don’t win elections in France anymore with a heathy economy. You apparently win them with simple slogans inspired by one from a few years ago across the ocean: “Make America Great Again” which really meant “Make America White Again”. Same here…
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